tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post4241248407595404977..comments2023-06-17T08:25:24.874-07:00Comments on The Oil ConunDRUM: CO2 Outgassing Model (αβ)@whuthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-87679207452564722972015-07-27T18:52:30.942-07:002015-07-27T18:52:30.942-07:00So, I wonder if the buffering in oceans as carboni...So, I wonder if the buffering in oceans as carbonic acid, and its being pH dependent throws any kind of a wrench into this thinking. I remember a problem in a problem set (possibly from Ray Pierrehumbert's PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, although I cannot find it) which asked the student to calculate rate of CO2 outgassing from oceans as a function of temperature. The time for significant outgassing at present temperatures was large, and the rate only increased slowly with temperature.Jan Galkowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07636706072515906253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-72974603181235002892013-10-22T00:30:36.090-07:002013-10-22T00:30:36.090-07:00Slight correction, what you have solved is for [CO...Slight correction, what you have solved is for [CO2] and ΔT<br /><br />http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=223<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-32532425827269880732013-10-22T00:21:22.754-07:002013-10-22T00:21:22.754-07:00We next cast this in terms of a differential equat...We next cast this in terms of a differential equation where dc=d[CO2] and dT = dΔT.<br /><br />So the solution you have derived is that between d[CO2] and dΔT.<br /><br />As I showed in recent data this is in phase and close to linear in agreement with your model.<br />http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=233<br /><br />Yet you are comparing to CO2 and T from Vostok. which as we see has a large time lag seen in the Lissajous figures.<br /><br />Apples and oranges?<br /><br /><br /> <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-79731281521006747802013-10-21T05:32:01.416-07:002013-10-21T05:32:01.416-07:00OK, I've seen what you've done the T^2 etc...OK, I've seen what you've done the T^2 etc, look correct to within usual approximations. <br /><br />" liberal swapping" seems to be lack of care and consistency in notation but maths looks correct w.r.t various substitutions. <br /><br />Perhaps you could explain why second difference terms get muted to single differences in the 'casting' set. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-19020313781944387312013-10-21T03:59:20.726-07:002013-10-21T03:59:20.726-07:00d2(T) = d2(C) . [ α - 2βT.dT ] ??
d2(T) = d2(C) . [ α - 2βT.dT ] ??<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-47017828613773814952013-10-21T03:51:26.704-07:002013-10-21T03:51:26.704-07:00I'm also a little uneasy about the liberal swa...I'm also a little uneasy about the liberal swapping between dΔT and dT and dΔ[CO2] terms. <br /><br />aren't these double diff terms? <br /><br />Maybe I''m just missing a substitution that you have not laid out explicitly but it seems that there is some inconsistency there too.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-17148076074510221392013-10-21T03:36:32.042-07:002013-10-21T03:36:32.042-07:00this CO2(T) question has been bugging me for a whi...this CO2(T) question has been bugging me for a while and I wanted to take an ODE approach. I think this sort of engineering approach is long over due. <br /><br />Seems like you have already done a lot of it. <br /><br />However, I see in your Monte Carlo plots that model curves the wrong way. The data clearly rises early and flattens out, so I don't think this is a question of return to mean adjustments. It's not bad but there's a basic flaw in the model. A too strong temp dependence. <br /><br />I looked over this initial equations and I think I see an error. <br /><br />d[CO2]∼dp=β/T^2.pdT∼β/T^2 . [CO2]dΔT<br /><br />here you substitute dT with dΔT but not in T^2 term. <br /><br />this should be (ΔT)^2 , if you work that though as difference of two squares, you get 2T.ΔT in place of T^2<br /><br />I suggest you modify you ODE accordingly and see if the model matches any better. <br /><br />regards, Greg.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-13078992710838718942013-10-21T03:22:51.169-07:002013-10-21T03:22:51.169-07:00hoop jumping testhoop jumping testAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-28659597247616099332013-06-24T06:57:06.158-07:002013-06-24T06:57:06.158-07:00DeWitt,
You are right. Except for the initial stim...DeWitt,<br />You are right. Except for the initial stimulus, perhaps a volcanic burst or vegetative belch of CO2, it should lag T.<br /><br />Recent papers are tightening the lag:<br /><br />[1]J. B. Pedro, S. O. Rasmussen, and T. D. van Ommen, “Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation,” Climate of the Past, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 1213–1221, Jul. 2012.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-31857792940242676072013-06-20T14:40:11.242-07:002013-06-20T14:40:11.242-07:00It looks to me like the δ40Ar peak occurs before t...It looks to me like the δ40Ar peak occurs before the peaks in CO2 and CH4. The x axis is years BP, i.e. going to the right is going back in time. CO2 and CH4, as expected lag temperature, not the other way around. I can't imagine a physical model that would cause CO2 and especially CH4 to increase before temperature increases.DeWitthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921810076159914432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-37183061988287572282012-04-27T20:56:26.942-07:002012-04-27T20:56:26.942-07:00Read up on books by E.T. Jaynes, Murray Gell-Mann,...Read up on books by E.T. Jaynes, Murray Gell-Mann, David Mumford, (and also Didier Sornette if you want to get completely over your head) and N.N.Taleb (if you want to get more opinionating).@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-67240380017255279382012-04-22T22:14:24.104-07:002012-04-22T22:14:24.104-07:00I hope you don't mind a general question: how ...I hope you don't mind a general question: how might an engineer like me with a strong technical but poor statistical background pick up the basics of the sort of analysis you do? Specifically I'm interested in learning the basics of applying the maximum entropy principle and chaos theory (if the latter is relevant) to my own work.<br /><br />Your posts are fascinating but largely over my head. Are there books that you'd recommend to pick things up? (I assume it'll take three or four books of progressive difficulty at least before I can understand your posts.)barathhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17985128800963474684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-30181600223311617812012-03-11T13:36:17.046-07:002012-03-11T13:36:17.046-07:00The Argon 40 level is used as the proxy for the Vo...The Argon 40 level is used as the proxy for the Vostok temperature. That much is of course assumed, and I included the reference which estimated the 800 year lag.<br /><br />DocMartyn has a theory that all changes are due to some biotic process drawing from iron dust being deposited from outer space. So I am not at all sure what he is getting at, other than to provide some FUD, and perhaps imply that CO2 changes are due to some biological origin as iron is an important nutrient for plant growth.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8890671936020885112.post-63211877078476058992012-03-11T12:18:12.374-07:002012-03-11T12:18:12.374-07:00The entrapment of Ar in the ice is a much better p...The entrapment of Ar in the ice is a much better proxy of ocean temperature than CO2. So far there are only a few ice core measurements, but these do show Ar outgassing (via the Ar/N2 ratio), with no chnage in CO2.<br />Ar, unlike CO2, is non-biotic and one can see that CO2 levels do not track temperature.DocMartynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03948603313788102830noreply@blogger.com